2023 Second Quarter Newsletter
June 30, 2023
What a great time to be an Investment Advisor Representative. Not only do we have to render advice on which investments to work with today, but we have to look at what may be coming down the road to upset those plans. One of the largest concerns I have is the size and trend of our national debt and how much the interest payments will eat into the US budget along with the two major social entitlements; Social Security and Medicare. The new modern monetary theory professed by the progressives says it does not matter how much debt the government incurs, it can always be repaid in the future by printing or creating more dollars or by higher taxes. I think we may find out how wrong that theory is in the next few years. Our national debt is on track to be more than our GDP.
2023 First Quarter Newsletter
April 14, 2023
If you thought 2022 was mystifying, 2023 may prove to be adventurous with many more confusing currents. The first quarter was an active one.
The Fed increased interest rates very quickly from last year and the results are a duration risk for both banks and insurance companies. The 10 year Treasury’s market value fell by about 20% since January 2022. If depositors withdraw money or if insurance claims are more than expected, these institutions could be in a difficult financial position. As interest rates increase, the value of existing bonds decreases.
2022 Fourth Quarter Newsletter
January 10, 2023
2022 will be a year that few investors will forget. There was no hiding. Both stocks and bonds declined more than anyone thought possible or probable. From Barron’s dated 01/02/2023, the S&P was down 19.4%; Large cap growth, -29%; NASDAQ – 33.1% and the 10 year Treasury down by about 17%. Banks and REITs were down about 25% each. Energy was up for the year, but a lot of press made it look too risky and too short term. If you bought in late, your losses might be very high because energy was down 4.5% in December. Cash was solid, but it lost buying power because of inflation. Again, there was no place to hide.
2022 Third Quarter Newsletter
October 13, 2022
Lots of items in the news and I cannot discuss all of them. Please call me with your questions. The following are my opinions that I put together by listening, reading and thinking. I cannot offer any guarantees, because none exists. Markets are volatile and, as you can see from your statements, markets can decline.
2022 may go down as one of the worst investment years. As I said before, there is no place to hide except in cash and short term bonds. I have not met anyone that is prescient enough to know when and where this investment cycle will end. It will end and the economy will recover and I am not sure how long it will take. The last week in September, the S&P 500 was down over 3%.