2022 Third Quarter Newsletter
October 13, 2022
Lots of items in the news and I cannot discuss all of them. Please call me with your questions. The following are my opinions that I put together by listening, reading and thinking. I cannot offer any guarantees, because none exists. Markets are volatile and, as you can see from your statements, markets can decline.
2022 may go down as one of the worst investment years. As I said before, there is no place to hide except in cash and short term bonds. I have not met anyone that is prescient enough to know when and where this investment cycle will end. It will end and the economy will recover and I am not sure how long it will take. The last week in September, the S&P 500 was down over 3%.
2022 Second Quarter Newsletter
July 1, 2022
April, May and June were very cruel for investment returns with June being slightly less negative than the other two. As I said in my last letter, there is no place to hide. Almost all stocks and bonds have double digit declines year to date. Corporate earnings reports started mid-April and did buttress the market for a short time. Those earnings were cast aside because corporate forward guidance was mostly negative and the market retreated. According to Barron’s for 2022, longer term bonds are down over 14%; US stocks are down about 20%; foreign stocks are down about 24%; emerging markets are down over 20%; US small and mid-cap stocks are down even more.
2022 First Quarter Newsletter
April 8, 2022
The unthinkable has happened. My assumption was that no modern nation would try to conquer another sovereign nation by force. Many refused to believe anyone could be that irresponsible. The pain and agony the Russian army is inflicting on Ukraine is from another century when European countries were constantly at war with each other. Sanctions have erased about 20 years of progress in Russia in four weeks. I think Putin expected the invasion would split European unity and it did the opposite. Germany and Japan are now thinking about increasing their military budget for protection.
2021 Fourth Quarter Newsletter
December 31, 2021
Happy new year to you and your family.
The last quarter of 2021 was very difficult. It started with the end of September’s sell off in the stock markets, and then recovered, then sold off, then recovered, then sold off. That’s the way it was and it proved difficult to judge where the markets were going, if anywhere.